Estimation of Bundibugyo virus outbreak size in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, May 2026 (imperial.ac.uk)

• Two independent estimation methods suggest 400–800 actual BVD cases in DRC as of mid-May 2026.
• Official count of 336 suspected cases likely underestimates outbreak size due to limited detection.
• Exported cases to Uganda and reported deaths used for estimation; results consistent but with wide uncertainty.

"A report from Imperial College London estimates that as of 16 May 2026, the actual number of Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD) cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) likely ranges from 400 to 800, substantially higher than the 336 suspected cases officially reported. Two independent methods were used: one based on exported cases to Uganda and population movement data, another using reported deaths and case fatality ratios. The findings indicate significant under-detection and potential for wider transmission in Ituri and Nord Kivu provinces."