Imperial College Estimates 400–800 Excess Ebola Cases in DRC Bundibugyo Outbreak, May 2026 (imperial.ac.uk)

• Two independent modelling methods estimate 400–800 actual Bundibugyo cases in DRC as of 17 May 2026.
• Method 1 uses 2 exported cases to Uganda and border crossing data; Method 2 back-calculates from suspect deaths.
• Report highlights high uncertainty, with scenarios ranging from 235 to 1,718 cases.
• Confirms substantial under-detection and need for enhanced surveillance.

"As of 16 May 2026, 336 suspected Ebola cases and 88 deaths were reported in DRC, with 10 laboratory-confirmed cases (8 in Ituri, 2 exported to Uganda). Imperial College London modelling using two independent methods suggests actual cases in DRC are 400–800, possibly exceeding 1,000, indicating substantial under-detection. The analysis uses geographic spread data (exported cases and border crossing volumes) and back-calculation from reported deaths, assuming a CFR of 24–40% and doubling times of 7–21 days. High uncertainty remains."