Report: Estimation of the size of the Ebola outbreak caused by Bundibugyo virus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (imperial.ac.uk)

• Estimated 400–800 BVD cases in DRC by 17 May 2026
• Two independent methods yield consistent results
• Official count: 336 suspected, 88 deaths, 8 confirmed in Ituri
• Two exported cases confirmed in Uganda
• Substantial under-detection likely

"A report from Imperial College London and WHO estimates that by 17 May 2026, approximately 400 to 800 cases of Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD) may have occurred in the DRC, based on two independent methods. Officially, 336 suspected cases and 88 deaths were reported, with 8 lab-confirmed in Ituri and 2 exported cases in Uganda. The estimates indicate substantial under-detection, and values over 1,000 cannot be excluded."